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S&P 500 TRYING TO DO SOMETHING THIS JULY IT HASN'T DONE IN MORE THAN 65 YEARS
It's been quite a roller coaster for stocks so far this year. After setting record highs in February, the S&P 500 index .SPX collapsed about 19% into its early April trough.
The benchmark index then rocketed, and scored fresh record highs in late June. Strength continued into last week.
Although still in the early stages of July, bulls note that, on average, it has been one of the market's better months:
Since 1950, with an average gain of 1.28%, July ranks as the fourth best month on the year.
Of note, the S&P 500, which is last up around 0.25% month-to-date, is attempting to rise for an 11th-straight July. The SPX last rose 11 Julys in a row, its longest July win streak in its history, in 1959:
Meanwhile, Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, said that what caught his attention is the month of June historically hasn’t been very strong, and neither has May for that matter.
However, this year, the SPX surged just over 6% in May (for its best May since 1990), and it advanced about 5% in June.
According to Detrick, a strong May and June bodes well for the market.
"July actually does better when May and June are higher, but it is the final six months that really stand out, as these months have finished higher an incredible 15 out of the past 16 times and up nearly 9% on average (in half a year)," wrote Detrick in a note out last week.
Detrick's bottom line is that he sees "reasons to expect this bull market to continue and the strength the last two months only further confirms this."
(Terence Gabriel)
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