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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Stocks dip, dollar in doldrums as Trump's deal deadline approaches

ReutersJul 4, 2025 8:21 AM
  • US stock futures decline as focus shifts to spending bill
  • Trade deals elusive ahead of higher tariffs on July 9
  • Trading thinned by Wall Street, Treasuries holidays for July 4

By Lawrence White

- Stocks slipped on Friday despite record highs for Wall Street overnight, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals loomed next week.

The dollar retraced some of Thursday's gains with U.S. markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week, as traders considered the impact of the sweeping spending bill that Trump is expected to sign into law later in the day.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX fell 0.6%, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard PERP.PA and Remy Cointreau RCOP.PA after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9% on brandy from the European Union starting July 5.

U.S. S&P 500 futures EScv1 edged down 0.5%, following a 0.8% overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh all-time closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on exports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply.

Investors are "now just waiting for July 9," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market's lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea.

At the same time, Thursday's jobs data showed "the U.S. economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better" from here, Sycamore said.

Investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main U.S. equity indexes climbing in a shortened session.

Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump's signature, 869-page bill, which would add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

TRADE THE KEY FOCUS IN ASIA

Trump said he expected "a couple" more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India is close. However, agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appear to have broken down.

The U.S. dollar rallied overnight, taking it up as much as 0.7% versus a basket of major peers =USD after the robust payrolls data saw traders take any expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month off the table. It ended Thursday with a 0.4% rise.

On Friday, the U.S. currency gave back a little of those gains, slumping 0.4% to 144.31 yen JPY=EBS and sliding 0.2% to 0.7936 Swiss franc CHF=EBS.

The euro EUR=EBS added 0.2% to $1.1773, while sterling GBP=D3 held steady at $1.3662.

The U.S. Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields US10YT=RR rose 4.7 basis points (bps) to 4.34% while the 2-year yield US2YT=RR jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882%.

Gold XAU= firmed 0.4% to $3,339 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe haven assets due to concerns over the U.S.'s fiscal position and tariffs.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 7 cents to $68.73 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was last seen flat at $67.02.

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