GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks flat, US yields climb dip as data, Powell comments gauged

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Global shares were little changed and U.S Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday, as investors weighed a host of U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to gauge the timing of any interest rate cuts.

Powell, speaking at a central banking conference in Sintra, Portugal, said he could not say if July was too early for a rate cut, but it "is going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting."

Market expectations for a July cut briefly inched up to 21.2% from 18.6% in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, before fading to 19.1%.

On Wall Street, the Dow climbed about 1% but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were held in check after closing at record levels on Monday, in part due to a nearly 6% in Tesla TSLA.O after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to cut off the billions of dollars in subsidies that Elon Musk's companies receive from the federal government.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 427.24 points, or 0.97%, to 44,522.63, the S&P 500 .SPX rose 1.03 points, or 0.02%, to 6,206.19 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 107.68 points, or 0.53%, to 20,262.06.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS ticked up 0.32 point, or 0.03%, to 918.21 while the pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX index closed down 0.21% as concerns over the impact of tariffs on global growth were rekindled as a July 9 deadline by Trump draws closer.

On the economic front, U.S. data showed manufacturing remained in contraction territory in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

In the first reading of the week on the labor market, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed openings were up 374,000 to 7.769 million by the last day of May, but a decline in hiring indicated the market may have slowed.

"Despite a large jump in job openings in May, the economy continues to be stuck in Powell's 'no hire, no fire' equilibrium," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

"It's not a stable equilibrium and considering the ISM Manufacturing data, things may tilt towards a weaker job market over the summer."

Investors will closely watch Thursday's key government payrolls report, expected a day earlier than usual due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4, to help shape expectations for rate cuts from the Fed.

U.S. Treasury yields reversed course and turned higher after the data, with the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10YT=RR up 2.9 basis points to 4.255%.

The 2-year note US2YT=RR yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 6.2 basis points to 3.783%.

Trump's tax-cut and spending legislation continued its advance, as the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate passed by the thinnest of margins, and now heads back to the House of Representatives for final approval.

"It's going to create some problems for the fixed income market as we continue to spend no matter which party is in power, and, ultimately, that's a negative for the stock market," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey.

"But the reaction from investors in the short term is just that it's pro economic development, and they're not as worried about inflation, and they continue to buy stocks."

The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies and is coming off its biggest first half drop since 1973, was last up 0.04% to 96.80, putting it on track to snap an eight session streak of declines.

The euro EUR= was down 0.03% at $1.1782 while Sterling GBP= slipped 0.01% to $1.3732.

Against the Japanese yen JPY=, the dollar weakened 0.26% to 143.63. Earlier readings from the Bank of Japan's Tankan index of business sentiment indicated the biggest economies in the region were likely holding up in the face of tariffs, while a separate private sector survey showed the country's manufacturing sector expanded in June for the first time in 13 months.

U.S. crude CLc1 rose 0.4% to $65.37 a barrel and Brent LCOc1 rose to $67.05 per barrel, up 0.46% on the day.