LIVE MARKETS-If the S&P 500 hits the record, then what?

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IF THE S&P 500 HITS THE RECORD, THEN WHAT?

With the S&P 500 threatening a return to its February records, CFRA's chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall was citing historicals as he looked ahead.

Despite a litany of uncertainties, he reminds investors that "it would be rare indeed if the S&P 500 got within 2% of recovering all that was lost in the recent correction (down 18.9%) only to turn around and morph into a new bear market."

But then again, the list of uncertainties includes the Middle East and ongoing tariff tensions - projected to pressure global GDP and Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth. They also include the impact from the "One Big Beautiful Bill," which Washington had designs on getting through by July 4, just a week away.

Also he cites the prolonged delay in interest rate cuts.

But Stovall looks to history to remind investors that there are no guarantees, noting that "three of the 14 bear markets since WWII (1948, 1957, and 2000) did just that."

He also found encouragement in history as the S&P 500 typically gained an average and median of 10% and 6%, respectively, in its post-correction periods before meeting another decline of 5% or more.

With a view to the month ahead, Stovall points out that the S&P 500's fourth-highest average monthly return is July, with it rising 1.2% versus the average 0.70% gain for all months.

The S&P 500 was last at just 0.2% below its intraday record high.

(Sinéad Carew)

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