LIVE MARKETS-Tuesday trio: Consumer confidence, Case-Shiller, current account

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

TUESDAY TRIO: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CASE-SHILLER, CURRENT ACCOUNT

Three reports greeted investors on Tuesday, much of it suggesting some economic dampening as markets adjust their rate cut expectations.

First, the mood of the U.S. consumer, who shoulders about 70% of the U.S. economy, has unexpectedly dimmed this month.

The Conference Board's (CB) consumer confidence index USCONC=ECI fell by 5.5% in June to land at 93, or 7 points south of consensus.

Digging deeper, survey participants' assessment of present conditions deteriorated by 4.7%, while near-term expectations soured by 6.2%.

The surprise drop erased "almost half of May’s sharp gains,” says Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at CB in the press release, which notes that "June’s retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the largest decline among Republicans."

Data geeks will remember that a yawning gap between the present situation and expectations - as seen in the graphic below - is often a harbinger of recession. Any material widening of the gulf between the two is worrisome:

A look at the jobs confidence segment of the report reveals the most pessimistic view of the labor market since March 2021.

Switching to housing, home prices across major U.S. cities dropped by 0.3% in April, steeper than the 0.1% down-tick analysts expected.

Year-on-year, the Case-Shiller 20-city composite USSHPQ=ECI increased by 3.4%, which was much cooler than March's 4.1% annual increase and 0.6 percentage points below consensus.

“The underlying market dynamics remain challenging but not dire," writes Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones.

"Mortgage rates sustained their mid 6% range throughout April, keeping monthly payment burdens near generational highs and effectively pricing out significant segments of potential buyers," Godec says, adding that a still-tight supply of homes on the market "continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared."

Among the cities in the composite, New York and Chicago once again led the year-over-year gainers, rising 8.0% and 6.0%, respectively. Alas, poor Tampa was once again the biggest loser, with home prices down 2.2% from a year ago.

In more ancient news, the current account deficit USCURA=ECI, which accounts for trade, international investment and other transfers of capital, yawned 44.3% wider in the first quarter.

Much of the widening can be attributable to imports surging to record highs in the first months of the year as businesses attempted to build up their inventories ahead of Trump's market-rattling tariffs.

(Stephen Culp)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

STOCKS HAVE STRONG OPEN; TRUMPS ORDERS ISRAEL TO STOP IRAN STRIKES CLICK HERE

WALL STREET STOCK FUTURES RISE ON HOPES OF IRAN-ISRAEL CEASEFIRE CLICK HERE

SWEDISH CROWN WEAKNESS ON THE HORIZON CLICK HERE

STOXX JUMPS AS AIRLINES TAKE OFF; ENERGY LAGS CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: GET READY TO JUMP CLICK HERE

TRUMP TOUTS 'FOREVER' CEASEFIRE, OIL SLIDES CLICK HERE