BREAKINGVIEWS-Students will follow investors by dumping the US

By Aimee Donnellan

DUBLIN, May 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The dream of studying in the United States has become a nightmare for international students. Donald Trump’s row with Harvard University, combined with his government’s broader attack on students arriving from other countries, has dented the value of American higher education. The president’s unpredictable approach means U.S. college degrees may join the dollar and Treasury bonds in losing their international allure.

Trump’s administration this month targeted thousands of overseas students who had regular contact with the police and revoked their permission to study in the country. Last week, the government attempted to strip Harvard University of its federal certification to enrol international students as part of a broader row with the Ivy League institution, which is challenging the move in court. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said his department will “aggressively” revoke visas from Chinese students studying in American universities.

The onslaught has disrupted a big global market. In 2022, almost 7 million students were enrolled in institutions outside their home country, according to UNESCO. Just as the dollar is the dominant currency for international trade, the United States is the biggest magnet for overseas education. It attracted a record 1.1 million international students in the 2023/2024 academic year, according to the State Department, more than half of them from India and China. These pupils, who often pay higher fees than their domestic classmates, contributed more than $50 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023, a similar level to the nation’s parks and museums, the Department of Commerce calculated.

Just as money managers have swapped the greenback for euros and Swiss francs, a frostier reception stateside has students looking for alternative havens. But the U.S. is not alone in trying to stem inflows of educational expatriates. Strains on housing, healthcare and rising anti-immigrant sentiment prompted both Canada and Australia to implement caps on foreign students last year. Britain recently proposed restrictions on how long graduates can stay in the country after completing their studies.

Still, the damage is unevenly distributed. Australia has overtaken the United States as the most popular destination for students from India – the largest cohort of pedagogical pilgrims – IDP Education found last month. By contrast, the Trump administration’s scattergun approach is proving a turnoff. According to Keystone Education Group, which tracks search interest for university courses, international interest in the U.S. has dropped 45% since March across all levels of study. Searches for Australian, British and Canadian courses were up 26%, 22% and 11%, respectively. Other countries may also benefit: Manuel Muñiz, the provost of IE University in Spain, told Breakingviews he has seen a surge of interest from abroad for the coming academic year.

If the negative sentiment leads to lower U.S. admissions in 2025 and 2026, universities from Melbourne to Montreal stand to benefit. American academies, meanwhile, are at risk of a self-perpetuating selloff.

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CONTEXT NEWS

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on May 28 the United States will start “aggressively” revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.

Rubio said the State Department will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from China and Hong Kong.

A federal judge on May 28 said she would issue an order that would continue to block the Trump administration from revoking Harvard University’s ability to enrol international students. The university argues the administration is retaliating against it for refusing to accede to its demands to control the school’s governance, curriculum and the ideology of its faculty and students. Harvard filed the lawsuit a day after Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on May 22 announced she was revoking its certification with the Student and Exchange Visitor Program.

On May 27 Politico reported that the Trump administration is considering vetting social media of all international students who are seeking to study in the U.S. The government ordered U.S. embassies around the world to pause scheduling new interviews with international students to prepare for such vetting, the report added citing a cable.