LIVE MARKETS-Benchmark Treasury yield trying to snap 6-day streak of declines

ReutersApr 30, 2025 1:19 PM

US equity index futures red: Nasdaq 100 slides ~1.9%
Apr ADP National Employment 62k vs 115k estimate
Q1 GDP advance -0.3% vs 0.3% estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.3%
Dollar gains; bitcoin slips; gold dips; crude down >1%
US 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.18%

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BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD TRYING TO SNAP 6-DAY STREAK OF DECLINES

On Tuesday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR fell for a sixth-straight day, ending at 4.174%, as investors zeroed in on economic data, crowned by Friday's payrolls report.

Now on Wednesday, the yield, after hitting an earlier low of 4.135%, is edging up to around 4.18%.

This after ADP data showed private payroll growth slowed in April, and the advance Q1 GDP read printed negative, while Q1 advance core PCE prices came in above estimates.

With this, the yield is attempting to end a six-day streak of declines. The yield last fell more than six days in a row with an eight-day stretch of declines that ended in August of last year.

Meanwhile, traders are watching yield support at the upper boundary of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, which now resides around 4.16%, and the March low at 4.106%:

The lower Cloud boundary now resides around 4.08%. The Cloud is thinning, which may minimize its significance.

That said, if the yield finishes below the 4.16%-4.08% zone on Friday, it would suggest a fall to the early April low at 3.86% and the support line from the April 2023 trough, which is now around 3.75%.

Bouncing off the Cloud can suggest the yield may be poised to resume a more sustained advance, with the 4.259%-4.29% area a hurdle.

If the yield moves back above this zone, it would refocus on 4.40% followed by the 4.592% April high. The February high was at 4.66%, and the weekly resistance line from the October 2023 peak is now around 4.76%.

(Terence Gabriel)

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