LIVE MARKETS-So-so Thursday: Housing starts, jobless claims, Philly Fed

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SO-SO THURSDAY: HOUSING STARTS, JOBLESS CLAIMS, PHILLY FED

Three indicators released before the extended Good Friday weekend hinted that the U.S. economy - like the Federal Reserve and the consumer - is taking a "wait and see" stance toward as-yet unknown tariff effects.

Groundbreaking on new American homes USHST=ECI slid 11.4% in March to 1.324 million units at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR), according to the Commerce Department.

That's 6.8% fewer than the 1.420 million units SAAR analysts were expecting and follows a downward revision of February's increase, to 9.8% from 11.2%.

"We expect starts to soften further over the balance of the year, with activity to be weighed down by a weakening economy, elevated interest rates, and higher building costs due to tariffs," says Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics (OE).

Looking under the hood, single-family projects - which account for the lion's share of the total - tumbled 14.2% to an eight-month low, while multiple-unit starts dropped by 3.5%.

On the other hand, building permits USBPE=ECI - considered one of the housing market's more forward-looking indicators - increased by 1.6% to 1.482 million units SAAR, 2.5% north of consensus.

A 2.0% decline single-family permits was offset by a 9.3% jump in multiple unit permits, a spike OE's Houten calls "more noise than signal."

Turning to the labor market, 215,000 U.S. workers filled out fresh applications for unemployment benefits USJOB=ECI last week, marking a 4.0% weekly decrease and landing 10,000 shy of consensus.

Initial claims have been low and rangebound, as demonstrated by the unchanged four-week moving average of initial claims.

While there's no sign that Trump's market-rattling "liberation day" tariff announcement has yet to show up in layoffs, "We think initial claims will rise significantly, however, over the next month or two," writes Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"Many companies will probably hold on to staff initially while they wait to see if the tariffs will remain in place," Allen adds. "But that will become harder to justify if the administration maintains its course and demand starts to soften."

Ongoing jobless claims USJOBN=ECI, reported on a one-week lag, increased by 2.2% to 1.885 million, or 13,000 more than analysts expected.

Continuing claims remain elevated, and support recent consumer survey data suggesting laid-off workers are finding it increasingly difficult to find a replacement gig.

Turning to the manufacturing sector, Atlantic region factory activity has unexpectedly contracted this month, and rather sharply.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Business index (or, Philly Fed) USPFDB=ECI plummeted from 12.5 to -26.4, a two-year low.

Economists expected a deceleration to 2.0.

Combined with Tuesday's Empire State data, the report suggests manufacturing in the Northeast is struggling to find its footing amid the fog of President Trump's chaotic trade policy.

A Philly Fed/Empire State number in positive territory indicates a monthly expansion of activity.

(Stephen Culp)

FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

S&P 500, NASDAQ HIGHER BUT UNITEDHEALTH SICKENS DOW - CLICK HERE

BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD PITCHING DOWN TOWARD THE CLOUD - CLICK HERE

UTILITIES NOT IMMUNE FROM GROWTH SLOWDOWN - CLICK HERE

THE CASE FOR A RETURN TO US OUTPERFORMANCE - CLICK HERE

STOXX 600 SOFT, LUXURY IN FOCUS - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: CAUTIOUS START BEFORE ECB - CLICK HERE

NO SURPRISE AT JAPAN TALKS, EXCEPT TRUMP - CLICK HERE