LIVE MARKETS-Watch out for an uptick in U.S. April data

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WATCH OUT FOR AN UPTICK IN U.S. APRIL DATA

Yes, we're all watching tariffs and what they mean for the U.S. economy. But Mizuho have a passing thought in a Wednesday note reminding us that they aren't the only thing.

"U.S data might rebound in April despite tariffs," writes Jordan Rochester, the bank's head of FICC strategy for EMEA, reminding us to look at U.S. rates, which he says have been a good indicator of U.S. data surprise momentum and typically operate with a 10-week lag.

That takes us back to mid- to late January, when the 10-year Treasury yield was in the early stages of its descent from recent highs around 4.8%. It was last 4.17%. US10YT=RR

This, says Rochester, "suggests in April US data surprise momentum may rebound."

"Tariffs and DOGE activities might upset that signal, but given US economists have become more downbeat in recent weeks – will they set a low bar, allowing for positive data beats in the weeks ahead too?"

As for the trade, Rochester says there's also a lag in Treasuries' response to data surprises, so it's probably one to get into in late April and into May.

(Alun John)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

US TREASURIES WILL FOLLOW STOCKS ON APRIL 2 CLICK HERE

TRUMP TARIFFS: WILL THE UK EARN A FREE PASS? CLICK HERE

HEALTHCARE LEADS EUROPE LOWER CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES DIP AHEAD OF LIBERATION DAY CLICK HERE

MORNING BID: MARKETS AT A STANDSTILL BEFORE TARIFF DRAMA CLICK HERE