FACTBOX-Brokerages see uncertain 2025 on worries over Trump tariffs
March 25 (Reuters) - Uncertainties around U.S. policies could slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to fuel volatility in global markets, raising inflationary pressures, which could limit major central banks from easing their monetary policy.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6400 | 4.25% | 0.99 | 150 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6200 | 4.4% | 1.02 (next 12 months) | 152 (next 12 months) | 7.35 (next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 6600 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
Societe Generale | 6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 |
Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 (Q4'25) | 7.50 | |
Nomura | 4.25% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 | |
Morgan Stanley | 6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 150 | 7.47 |
BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.75% | 1.15 | 165 | 7.40 |
Wells Fargo | 4.46% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
BMO Capital Markets | 6700 | ||||
Jefferies | 6000 | 4.43% | |||
Barclays | 6600 | 4.25% | |||
Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.08 | 140 | 7.30 | |
BNP Paribas | 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) | ||
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
Citigroup | 6500 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 | |
ING | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 | ||
HSBC | 6700 | ||||
Evercore ISI | 6800 | ||||
Peel Hunt | 4.15% | 1.06 (Q4'25) | |||
RBC Capital Markets | 6200 |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 2.6% | 2.59% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 2.3% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) |
Barclays | 2.6% | 2.5% |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.8% |
Societe Generale | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Deutsche Bank | 2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.3% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.5% | 2.5% |
BofA Global Research | 2.8% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
Berenberg | 2.7% | 2.6% |
BNP Paribas | 2.3% | |
Nomura | 3.0% | 2.7% |
ING | 2.4% | |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.6% |
Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
UBS Global Research | 2.7% | |
Peel Hunt | 2.6% | |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 6.4% |
Barclays | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.5% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 1% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 6.7% |
Nomura | 2.9% | 2.2 | 4.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 5.8% |
BofA Global Research | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 7.0% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.6% | 2.5% | ||||
Berenberg | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
BNP Paribas | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) | |
Peel Hunt | 1.9% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | |
ING | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
Jefferies | 2.4% (Q4/Q4) | |||||
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages 2025 forecast for S&P 500 index target
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