GLOBAL MARKETS-Futures buoyant ahead of data-driven week

By Nell Mackenzie and Tom Westbrook

LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 24 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Monday on upbeat German data and U.S. stock futures and the dollar firmed at the start of a data-driven week, although the threat of U.S. tariff hikes made investors cautious.

The pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX steadied by 0955 GMT with German .GDAXI and French .FCHI indices both up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, after data showed Germany's manufacturing production increased for the first time in almost two years.

S&P 500 futures ESc1 were up about 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures NQc1 rose 1.2%.

This week's data releases include global purchasing managers' survey, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation reading, inflation data in Australia and Japan, a budget update in Britain and major earnings in China.

While the word 'stagflation' has not explicitly been mentioned, "it is clear from central bank forecast projections (except for the Swiss National Bank) that higher inflation and weaker growth are complicating the policy outlook," Bank of America Global Research strategist, Kamal Sharma, said in a note.

But it is likely to be updates on U.S. President Donald Trump's plans for global reciprocal tariffs from April 2 that drive markets, and after a volatile month for stocks, bonds and currencies, analysts said there is no obvious trade ahead.

"It's very difficult to really devise a structural playbook," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

"You've got to put your mind into the head of the consumer and households," he said, since it has been fears of a slowdown in the world's biggest economy that has led to weeks of selling dollars and stocks and a strong rally for Treasuries.

"Anything that feeds into this higher probability of recession, higher probability of a stagflationary environment ... or that price pressures aren't transitory is where we start to get panicky a bit."

Trump has vowed to impose a complicated barrage of tariffs next week, the details of which are not clear save that they are to be calculated to reflect the impact of foreign tariffs as well as foreign value-added taxes on imports.

The S&P 500 .SPX eked out a gain on Friday after Trump hinted at flexibility, but after a rollercoaster first two months in power - including tariff hits on China, Mexico and Canada - traders are shy of betting that Trump is ready to cut deals.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR have fallen 38 basis points from mid-February highs to sit at 4.28%, last up about 3 basis points.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 ended Asia trading down 0.2% while stocks in Hong Kong .HIS finished up 0.9% and China's blue chip index .CSI300 finished up 0.5%.

In emerging markets, Indonesia's fragile stock market .JKSE hit its lowest level since 2021, last down 1.2% while Turkey's lira TRYTOM=D3 was on a knife edge as the jailing of President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival has unsettled investors. EMRG/FRX

Hong Kong shares are up about 18% so far this year, the largest gain of any major market, but a drop of 4.4% over two sessions late last week pointed to a pause in the flow of money while traders consider their - and Trump's - next moves.

Earnings at Chinese automaker BYD 002594.SZ, video platform Kuaishou 1024.HK as well as Chinese banks and several property developers will be in focus. Shares in China's largest food delivery firm Meituan 3690.HK fell 3% after it posted revenue more or less in line with estimates on Friday.

In the U.S., discount retailer Dollar Tree DLTR.O and up-market athletic clothier Lululemon LULO.O are on the calendar.

Gold XAU= steadied shy of last week's record high, buying $3,024 an ounce, while bitcoin BTC= rose 2.4% to $87,161.

"Cash and safe havens remain the counterbalance to any larger shift in strategy," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY in a note to clients.

"We expect a series of diplomatic meetings to avert extreme tariffs eventually, but not by April, leaving the sequencing concerns over Trump's policy shifts continuing to move markets with ongoing economic uncertainty."