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TREASURIES-Yields rise as tariff fears overwhelm improving inflation report

ReutersMar 12, 2025 1:48 PM

By Karen Brettell

- U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as concerns over the potentially inflationary impact of a global trade war offset optimism over slowing consumer price gains, after data showed that prices rose less than expected in February.

Some underlying components of the data that feed through to personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, were also higher than expected.

“This is the last reading not impacted by tariff distortions so to some extent the market's a little bit hesitant to over react to a better print,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York. Also, “the transmission to PCE is actually a little bit stronger.”

The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.2% in February after gaining 0.4% in January.

U.S. President Donald Trump's increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, stepping up a campaign to reorder global trade in favor of the U.S. and drawing swift retaliation from Canada and Europe.

Meanwhile a bond market rally that last week sent benchmark 10-year yields to their lowest levels since October is also seen as potentially played out for the near-term.

“The market's already rallied quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. There is a little bit of hesitation about pushing rates too far lower in advance of a lot of the uncertainty that's coming,” Goldberg said.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10YT=RR was last up 3.4 basis points on the day at 4.322%. The 2-year note US2YT=RR yield rose 5 basis points to 3.991%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes US2US10=TWEB flattened by around one basis point to 32 basis points.

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