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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX gains on dollar weakness; Ukraine eyes ceasefire

ReutersMar 11, 2025 9:01 PM
  • Ukraine voices readiness for 30-day ceasefire
  • Argentina pushes new IMF deal towards finish line with decree
  • Brazil's industrial output undershoots forecasts

By Shashwat Chauhan and Purvi Agarwal

- Most emerging market currencies firmed on Tuesday, lifted by a sagging dollar amid growing concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown, while developments in the Ukraine-Russia war came into focus.

The U.S. agreed to resume military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine immediately after talks in Saudi Arabia in which Kyiv voiced readiness to accept a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in its conflict with Russia.

Optimism about the peace deal boosted most emerging European currencies, while Russia's rouble RUB= was 2.3% higher against the dollar, over-the-counter market data showed.

International bonds in Ukraine were little changed, and were marginally lower on the day.

"U.S. is an important supplier of resources to the region. I'm not surprised Ukraine is showing willingness to cooperate ... It's good for risk sentiment and for the CEE currencies," said Jayati Bharadwaj, global FX strategist at TD Securities, referring to central and eastern European currencies.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday doubled his planned tariff on all steel and aluminum products coming into the United States from Canada.

The Mexican peso MXN=, among the most vulnerable to tariffs, was 0.5% higher.

Tariffs have caused market volatility, with a changing U.S. stance leading investors to question what tariffs would materialize.

"There's some tariff fatigue given the headlines have been flipping around a lot and it's become harder for people to just trade around tariff headlines," said Bharadwaj.

Rising copper prices aided currencies of top producers Chile CLP= and Peru PEN=, that gained 1.1% and 0.2% respectively, while the Colombian peso COP= strengthened 1.3% on rising oil prices.

Brazil's real BRL= firmed 0.8%. Investors assessed an industrial production reading in Brazil that remained unchanged in January from December, undershooting forecasts.

However, MSCI's gauge of Latam currencies .MILA00000CUS was 0.1% lower, while the stocks index .MILA00000PUS was off 0.3%.

Over the weekend, Trump declined to say whether the U.S. could face a recession, spurring a selloff in risk assets worldwide, bringing U.S. consumer price data due on Wednesday into the spotlight.

Markets expect greater policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year, with traders pricing in about 83 basis points' worth of easing by December, implying at least three 25-bps cuts, according to LSEG data.

Local equities remained under pressure after a sharp selloff in the last session, with Brazil's Bovespa .BVSP off 0.6%.

Argentina's Merval .MERV bucked the trend to advance 1% after the country's government published a decree backing a new International Monetary Fund program.

The decree is part of a strategy by libertarian President Javier Milei to move his plan through Congress, where he has a minority of seats and relies on conservative allies.

Elsewhere, Ghana's international bonds dropped after Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Baah Forson said the West African nation would give the economy "shock therapy" by making significant spending cuts this year.

The 2035 maturity XS2893151287=TE fell about 1 cent to bid at 70.725 cents on the dollar, Tradeweb data showed.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1109.85

-0.29

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

1989.18

-0.32

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

123726.55

-0.64

Mexico IPC .MXX

51626.87

-0.19

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7365.82

-0.05

Argentina Merval .MERV

2159971.06

0.99

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1581.51

-0.03

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.8111

0.76

Mexico peso MXN=

20.2567

0.47

Chile peso CLP=

933.13

1.09

Colombia peso COP=

4122.5

1.32

Peru sol PEN=

3.662

0.19

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1065.5

0

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1200

2.08

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