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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam markets wobble as US growth concerns rattle investors

ReutersMar 10, 2025 8:40 PM
  • Peru interest rate decision on Wednesday
  • JPMorgan downgrades Mexican stocks, upgrades Brazil
  • Latam stocks down 2.8%, FX slips 1.2%

By Shashwat Chauhan and Purvi Agarwal

- Latin American stocks tracked a Wall Street selloff on Monday on growing concerns that a tariff-induced global trade war could trigger a U.S. economic slowdown, while currencies slipped against a gaining dollar.

U.S. President Donald Trump declined to predict over the weekend whether the country could face a recession after he slapped additional tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.

"Uncertainty around U.S. policy trade and fiscal cuts has translated to serious concern about the growth outlook, which resulted in the worst weekly performance for the dollar in over a year (last week)," said analysts at LMAX Group.

"The market is deeply distressed given all of the unpredictability."

Trump's tariffs have stoked market volatility after the president late last week suspended for a month the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods which had come into effect on March 4.

Latam currencies weakened against the dollar, with the Brazilian real BRL= down 1.1%.

Currencies in export-heavy Chile CLP= and Colombia COP= also dipped 1.5% and 1.1%, tracking heavy losses in copper and oil.

MSCI's stocks gauge for Latin American currencies <.MILA00000CUS> fell 1.2%, on track for its worst day since early December. The stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS plunged 2.8%, eyeing its worst day since June 2024, in line with a drop on Wall Street.

All regional bourses were in the red, with Argentina's Merval .MERV down 6.8% while Mexican stocks .MXX slipped 2.7%, both on track for its worst days since July 2024. Brazil's Bovespa .BVSP dipped 0.9%.

JPMorgan downgraded Mexican stocks due to slower economic growth and U.S. tariffs, while taking a bullish stance on Brazilian equities, citing the potential end of an interest rate hiking cycle and a boost from China's stimulus measures.

U.S. inflation readings will be closely watched later this week, as worries of an economic slowdown and Trump's tariffs possibly stoking price pressures have led markets to reprice expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now betting for three, up from two previously, as per LSEG data.

Disappointing data out of China also weighed. The country's consumer price index fell at the sharpest pace in 13 months in February, while producer price deflation persisted, potentially impacting commodity prices.

Investors also awaited Argentina's fresh loan deal with the International Monetary Fund that could strengthen its economic plan.

Data showed Colombia's inflation rose more than expected in February, likely keeping policymakers inclined to hold interest rates steady at their March meeting.

Peru's central bank is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, while this week also brings inflation readings from Brazil.

Highlights:

Chile's Codelco copper output dips 4% in January

*Bank of Israel stays cautiously optimistic on inflation, rates outlook

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1111.65

-1.5

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

1977.04

-2.84

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

123917.48

-0.89

Mexico IPC .MXX

51399.52

-2.73

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7369.67

-0.1

Argentina Merval .MERV

2107671.16

-6.84

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1587.73

-1.41

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.853

-1.13

Mexico peso MXN=

20.3791

-0.71

Chile peso CLP=

943.4

-1.52

Colombia peso COP=

4179.75

-1.05

Peru sol PEN=

3.669

-0.44

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1065.25

0.02

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1205

0.83

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