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Applovin set to extend slide after slumping nearly half from its peak

ReutersMar 10, 2025 12:51 PM

Shares of marketing platform AppLovin APP.O down 8.5% at $247.60 premarket after losing nearly half of its value from its record high three weeks ago

Citi analyst Jason Bazinet says APP's selloff occurred due to two events unrelated to fundamentals: a series of bearish reports and a broader selloff in momentum stocks

Says based on peer's revenue growth rates, EBITDA margins and equity values, AppLovin should be worth $550/share; the prevailing equity value (of $260) suggests the market is ascribing a ~50% likelihood that AppLovin's equity is worth $0

"That strikes us as remarkably high. We suspect this has less to do with the merits of the bear's claims," says Bazinet

Stock down ~30% since February 26 when two short sellers Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research disclosed their short positions in APP

APP down 16.5% YTD, but still up 328% in the past 12 months

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