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COMMENT-Lower interest rates much more likely to influence currencies

ReutersMar 4, 2025 1:52 PM

- With stocks and oil falling in tandem lower interest rates are now far more likely to influence FX markets in the future. Stocks have been hit by an intensification of the trade war, while oil has slumped to the base of its long-term range in advance of an expected hike in production.

Cheaper oil will lessen inflation pressure, allowing central banks to cut interest rates in support of economies during a trade war that will probably undermine them, and few major economies were strong before.

Although the effect of any stimulus may be far more prominent in the likely recoveries for stock markets that lower interest rates will encourage, equity rallies will probably encourage currency traders to gamble.

Speculators expecting the Federal reserve to lower the U.S. interest rate faster and further than currently planned may sell dollars in exchange for the riskier currencies of oil importing nations which will be supported by cheaper crude prices and the stimulus of a global easing cycle.

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