LIVE MARKETS-The trans-Atlantic tariff spat of 2026?

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THE TRANSATLANTIC TARIFF SPAT OF 2026?

Say the Russia-Ukraine war were to end, which companies would benefit most from the reconstruction contracts?

It's a long way away and people are still fighting and dying on the battlefield. But Nomura wonder whether arguments over reconstruction could be a future trans-Atlantic spat.

If Trump resolves the Russia-Ukraine war "it would likely result in joint EU issuance fund for reconstruction and development ... (and) we would expect the bulk of winning tenders for rebuilding Ukraine to be European companies," write European economists at the investment bank in a Friday note.

"This would be a boon for European construction and manufacturing sectors, both of which have been languishing since the 2022 gas crisis."

"However," they add, "Trump may expect U.S. companies to benefit instead, due to how much financial and military support the U.S. has provided until now and the fact Trump would have brokered the peace deal, something Europe has failed to do since February 2022."

"Trump may even go as far as use the threat of tariffs as a negotiation tactic for Europe to promise allocating reconstruction funds to U.S. companies."

(Alun John)

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