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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX subdued after Trump reveals reciprocal tariff agenda; Brazil in focus

ReutersFeb 13, 2025 8:57 PM
  • Brazil cuts GDP forecast, lifts inflation outlook
  • Ukraine, Russia assets rally on hopes of peace talks
  • Monetary policy decision due in Peru
  • Argentina inflation hits five-year low in win for Milei
  • MSCI Latam FX down flat, stocks up 0.3%

Updates to mid-session trading

By Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal

- Latin American currencies were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on trade partners, while Brazil's real and domestic bonds were subdued after an official revision to economic growth and inflation forecasts.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS was flat against a weak dollar, while the stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS edged up 0.3%.

The tariffs could begin to be imposed within weeks and were expected to match any higher rates charged by other countries. They are also aimed at counteracting non-tariff trade barriers to the flow of U.S. products to foreign markets.

Mexico's peso has been the most sensitive to tariff news about Latin America given that about 80% of its exports are directed to its northern neighbor. The currency MXN= inched up 0.2% against the dollar, while the local benchmark equities index .MXX added 0.4%.

Economists at Capital Economics said emerging markets would suffer a greater loss of competitiveness, with India, Brazil and Turkey among the most exposed, and that they could provide concessions to Trump to avoid tariffs.

Brazil's real BRL= was flat and the local Bovespa index .BVSP edged higher by 0.2%, while the sovereign 10-year bond BR10YT=RR dipped. The domestic government cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.3% amid ongoing monetary tightening and lifted its inflation outlook.

Peru's sol PEN= was little changed ahead of a local monetary policy meeting in which the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady.

Argentina's Merval .MERV gained 2.4% and dollar bonds 040114HS2=, AR217736439=, AR217736552= rose over 1 cent as markets took comfort from inflation dropping to 2.2% in January, its lowest since mid-2020.

Analysts say the economy is benefitting from the various austerity measures by libertarian President Javier Milei.

Elsewhere, Ukrainian dollar bonds XS2895057334=TE rose over 1 cent, while Russia's RUB= appreciated 5% to its highest level since September and the local stock index .IMOEX surged 1% after Trump's calls with the country's leaders fueled hopes for peace talks that could end the years-long conflict.

Ukraine and its European allies demanded that they be included in any peace negotiations, with the European Union warning against a "dirty deal" on Ukraine.

Sanctions on Russia are expected to be lifted if the war ends, improving oil supply and lowering prices globally.

Oil prices stabilized after sharp declines in the previous session. Latam oil exporter Colombia's peso COP= firmed 0.5%.

Chile's peso CLP= rose 0.8%, tracking higher copper prices. MET/L

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies around 2004 GMT:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1114.74

0.34

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2071.25

0.31

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

124612.78

0.19

Mexico IPC .MXX

54302.68

0.44

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7328.35

0.63

Argentina Merval .MERV

2341477.81

2.434

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1531.76

0.03

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7694

-0.08

Mexico peso MXN=

20.4738

0.2

Chile peso CLP=

942.75

0.75

Colombia peso COP=

4142

0.52

Peru sol PEN=

3.715

flat

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1056.75

-0.02

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1205

1.23



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