BUZZ-TD Cowen cuts Merck to 'hold' on weak forecast and HPV vaccine troubles

Brokerage TD Cowen downgrades drugmaker Merck's MRK.N shares to "hold" from "buy" on weak forecast and a "lack of clarity" regarding shipment of its HPV vaccine Gardasil in China

Last week, MRK forecast total revenues below Wall Street estimates and said it would not ship Gardasil in China until at least the middle of the year

Lowers PT to $100 from $121 on reduced profit and sales estimates for each year through 2030

Brokerage says MRK's business development effort seems to have lost momentum ahead of blockbuster cancer therapy Keytruda losing key patents in 2028

Beyond Keytruda, MRK's growth story "has not improved convincingly" despite a promising pipeline of experimental treatments, brokerage says

MRK's price to earnings ratio (P/E), a common benchmark for valuing stocks, will trough in 2026 - two years before Keytruda loses exclusivity, TD Cowen says

Stock has fallen 24% since late July when it first disclosed Gardasil troubles