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BUZZ-COMMENT-Big option zone could contain EUR/USD into February

ReutersJan 29, 2025 12:03 PM

- Soon-to-expire FX option strikes typically generate plenty of related FX hedging flows which can ultimately help to draw and contain the spot price. There are some very large strikes in the current vicinity which expire through the remainder of this week and into next.

Stand out EUR/USD option strikes expiring nearby on Wednesday January 29 are at 1.0400 in 1.1 billion euros and 1.0430 in 1.2 billion euros. Thursday January 30 at 1.0400-05 on 1.9 billion euros, between 1.0425-40 on 1.8 billion euros and 1.0350-55 on 3.2 billion euros. Friday January 31 strike expiries are at 1.0400 on 2.3 billion euros and 1.0450 on 2.5 billion euros.

Monday February 3 has strikes expiring at 1.0370 on 1 billion euros and 1.0400 on 2.2 billion euros. Tuesday February 4 has strikes expiring at 1.0395-1.0405 on 1.8 billion euros and between 1.0425-35 on 2.5 billion euros. Thursday February 6 sees the last of the current big strike expiries next week with 1.3 billion euros between 1.0380-90, 3.6 billion euros between 1.0400-15 and 2.8 billion euros between 1.0435-45.

EUR/USD implied volatility has been supported above last week's slump lows amid the impending central bank volatility risk and USD gains driven by tariff threats. However, demand has been relatively limited, which is more consistent with spot clinging to current/familiar ranges in the near term.

Related comment - Conflicting month-end FX rebalancing signals nL2N3OP09R

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