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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real rises after intervention, broader Latam FX inches down

ReutersDec 26, 2024 7:29 PM

Colombia c.bank's December policy meeting minutes due

Latam FX up 0.1%, stocks flat

Updates with afternoon prices

By Shashwat Chauhan

- Most Latin American currencies were slightly weaker in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, though Brazil's real advanced against the dollar after its central bank intervened in the forex market to support the sliding currency.

Brazil's real BRL= gained 0.2% against the dollar after its central bank sold $3 billion in a spot auction, extending a series of interventions in the foreign exchange market amid a greenback outflow from Latin America's largest economy.

The real hovers near all-time lows hit earlier this month in the face of a stronger dollar and a deepening financial crisis sparked by fiscal policy concerns.

Most markets reopened after the Christmas break, though volumes were expected to be low heading into the new year.

Mexico's peso MXN= weakened 0.2%, while Chile's peso CLP= held firm at 988.68 per dollar.

In Colombia, minutes from its central bank's last policy meeting, where it cut rates by a smaller-than-anticipated 25 basis points, are due later in the day.

"We expect the minutes to echo the post-meeting message about the importance of a cautious cutting cycle to minimize the risks of derailing the disinflation process, while acknowledging that there is room to dial back the still elevated level of policy restraint," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note.

On Tuesday, Mexican central bank deputy governor Jonathan Heath told Reuters that the central bank's board could discuss a rate cut of either 25 basis points or 50 basis points in its next decision in February.

MSCI's index for Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS inched 0.1% up, while a gauge for stocks .MILA00000PUS pared gains and was now flat.

Both MSCI's Latin American broader stock and currency indexes are set for steep yearly losses - almost 30% and over 10%, respectively - lagging broader EM assets, as many regional central banks grapple with rising inflation.

The outlook for 2025 is also likely to be challenging with persistently high U.S. rates hitting demand for emerging market assets, with the threat of broad global tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's administration also likely to weigh.

Elsewhere in emerging markets, Turkey's central bank cut its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 47.5%, a bit more than expected.

The Russian central bank said it will cut its net forex sales by almost 60% in the first working week of 2025, withdrawing some support for the rouble, which weakened slightly in response, but remained at around 100 to the U.S. dollar.

HIGHLIGHTS

** Guatemala open to accepting Trump's Central American deportees, sources say

** World Bank raises China's GDP forecast for 2024, 2025

** Moldova's parliament passes 2025 budget with deficit at 4% of GDP

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1084.07

-0.16

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

1878.58

0.01

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

121140.61

0.31

Mexico IPC .MXX

49534.75

0.44

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

6691.09

0.39

Argentina Merval .MERV

2606631.58

2.18

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1381.76

-0.14

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

6.1775

0.21

Mexico peso MXN=

20.1881

-0.19

Chile peso CLP=

988.68

0.04

Colombia peso COP=

4393

-0.5

Peru sol PEN=

3.74

-0.27

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1028.5

-0.24

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1190

0.84

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair Bell)

((Shashwat.Chauhan@thomsonreuters.com;))

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