Carnival Beats Q3 Guidance, Lifts 2026 Adjusted EPS Outlook to $2.24

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) reported record revenue, net yields and net income for the third quarter of 2026, exceeding its June guidance across every disclosed performance measure. The cruise operator also increased its full-year adjusted earnings outlook despite an estimated $150 million impact from higher fuel prices, while record booking levels provided increased visibility into 2027.

Third-quarter net yields rose 2.4% from a year earlier in constant currency, compared with guidance for 1.2% growth. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day increased 1.8% in constant currency, below the 2.8% increase the company had forecast.

Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.0 billion, ahead of the $2.9 billion guidance, while adjusted net income was $2.0 billion versus the projected $1.9 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came to $1.43, compared with guidance of $1.35. Carnival said its execution added more than $100 million to the bottom line relative to expectations.

Demand and onboard spending remain strong

Customer deposits reached a third-quarter record of $7.6 billion, up from $7.1 billion in the prior-year period. The roughly 7% increase significantly outpaced flat capacity, according to the presentation.

Carnival also reported strong growth in onboard revenue, including pre-cruise purchases, and said onboard revenue growth accelerated during the quarter. Those trends contributed to net yields exceeding guidance by 120 basis points.

The company said its booking curve remains the furthest out on record. Half of 2027 capacity is already booked, with both booked prices and occupancy at record levels. Bookings for 2028 have also started at higher occupancy and prices than at the comparable point last year.

Full-year earnings outlook increases despite fuel costs

Carnival now expects full-year 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.24, up from its June guidance of $2.22. The revised outlook incorporates an estimated $150 million headwind from higher fuel prices.

The company expects full-year net yields to increase 2.3% in constant currency, or 2.7% on a normalized basis. Its June outlook had called for growth of 1.75%, or 2.25% normalized. Normalized results exclude specified effects from itinerary redeployment and Carnival Cruise Line loyalty-program accounting.

Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day are expected to rise 2.2% in constant currency, compared with the previous 2.4% forecast. On a normalized basis, the expected increase is 1.1%, down from 1.3%. The normalization reflects expense timing, partial-year operating expenses from two exclusive destinations and elevated logistics costs linked to disruption from the Middle East conflict.

For the fourth quarter, Carnival expects normalized net yields to rise 2.3%, which the company said is 0.75 percentage points above its implied June guidance and consistent with the third quarter’s year-over-year trend.

Destination and fleet investments

Carnival expects its destination strategy to support additional earnings and returns. Celebration Key is projected to receive 3.5 million guests in 2027, up from 2.7 million in 2026, with four company brands scheduled to call there next year. RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and Isla Tropicale in Roatan are collectively expected to receive 2.8 million guests in 2027, compared with 1.9 million in 2026, with seven brands calling.

The company is also continuing selective fleet investment. Carnival Festivale is scheduled to enter service in May 2027, while Cunard’s Queen Mary 2 is set for a major refurbishment that year. Midlife modernization programs for AIDA and Holland America Line are progressing, with additional vessels planned for 2027.

Carnival’s capital-allocation presentation showed more than $0.8 billion in annualized dividends, based on a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, and approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchases. The company had bought back about 45 million shares year to date as of September 28, bringing indicated 2026 shareholder returns to roughly $2.0 billion. Management expects the balance sheet and leverage metrics to improve from 2025 levels. An S&P upgrade gave Carnival its second investment-grade rating, and the company reported that it no longer has secured debt.

The outlook remains subject to risks including higher fuel costs, foreign-exchange movements, geopolitical uncertainty, adverse weather and changes in travel demand. Carnival also identified debt-servicing requirements, cybersecurity incidents, supplier disruptions, labor costs, regulatory changes, competition and execution risks related to shipbuilding, fleet maintenance and destination investments. The company noted that its non-GAAP measures are supplemental, may not be comparable with similarly named measures used by other companies and should not be considered substitutes for GAAP results.