Alpha Metallurgical Q4 revenue misses on challenges in metallurgical pricing environment

Overview

• U.S. metallurgical supplier's Q4 revenue missed analyst expectations, reporting a net loss

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $28.5 mln, down from previous quarter

• Company repurchased 6.9 mln shares for $1.1 bln under buyback program

Outlook

• Alpha sees 2026 metallurgical coal shipments between 14.4 mln and 15.4 mln tons

• Company expects 2026 thermal coal shipments between 0.7 mln and 1.1 mln tons

• Alpha anticipates 2026 met coal average price at $134.02 per ton

Result Drivers

• MET PRICING CHALLENGES - Alpha attributed Q4 net loss to persistent challenges in the metallurgical pricing environment

• COST INCREASES - Met segment cost of coal sales rose to $101.43 per ton, impacting profitability

• AUSTRALIAN INDEX IMPROVEMENTS - Quality-specific improvements in Australian low vol indexes expected to benefit Q1 2026

Company press release: ID:nPn2jMs1xa

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is no "strong buy" or "buy", 4 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the iron & steel peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is $205.00, about 22% above its February 26 closing price of $168.05

• The stock recently traded at 17 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 15 three months ago

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