Aon pegs H1 natural catastrophe insured losses at $100 billion

By Scott Vincent

July 15 - (The Insurer) - Aon has estimated public and private market insured losses from catastrophe events in the first half of 2025 at at least $100 billion, the broker said in a report on Tuesday,

The tally is more than double the broker’s estimate for average H1 losses in the 21st century, which stands at $41 billion.

It also significantly exceeds the $71 billion first half loss estimate Aon holds for 2023 and 2024, and represents the second highest H1 loss tally on record behind the broker’s $140 billion estimate for 2011.

The five costliest loss events of the half-year all took place in the U.S. and were split across two perils: wildfire and severe convective storm (SCS).

Aon estimated losses from the Palisades and Eaton wildfires in California in January at $23 billion and $17.5 billion, respectively.

The broker said it expected insured losses from SCS outbreaks in mid-March and mid-May to each cost insurers around $8 billion. A separate SCS event in May is expected to cost insurers an additional $4 billion.

In total, Aon said 16 SCS outbreaks in the U.S. had cost insurers $1 billion or more during the six-month period.

The two $8 billion SCS outbreaks in March and May both now feature in the five costliest events on record for the peril, the broker said.

Aon said SCS cost insurers $44 billion in the first half of the year, just behind the record $45 billion total recorded in the opening six months of 2023 and 2024.

The concentration of losses in the U.S. has meant a lower than usual protection gap, defined by the difference between economic and insured losses.

Aon estimated the H1 protection gap at 38%, which is said was the lowest on record for the first half of the year and significantly lower than the 21st century average of 69%.