Texas floods highlight progress and peril in US flood forecasting

By Mia MacGregor

July 10 - (The Insurer) - Flood forecasting and warning systems in the U.S. have improved significantly over the years, but experts warn that progress could stall as climate change drives more severe weather and proposed federal budget cuts threaten critical research and staffing.

The catastrophic floods that struck Texas over the July 4 weekend killed more than 100 people, with initial estimates of damages and economic losses ranging from $18 million to $22 million, according to Accuweather. The event shattered the region’s previous flood record, set at 36.60 feet in 1932.

In a statement to The Insurer, the National Weather Service said flash flood warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and early morning of July 4, providing lead times of more than three hours before the threshold for warnings was reached. The NWS also confirmed that offices in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo had additional personnel on duty during the flooding event.

However, in a July 9 letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, congressional science committee leaders said severe staff shortages at local NWS offices may have hampered the agency’s ability to communicate and coordinate with local officials during the crisis.

The letter said several key positions are vacant at the San Angelo Weather Forecasting Office, which covers Kerr County, including the meteorologist-in-charge, senior hydrologist and staff forecaster. Critical vacancies were also reported at the San Antonio office, including the warning coordination meteorologist and science officer.

“Many of these positions are dedicated to flood planning and coordination with local emergency managers, including the development of emergency warning alerts and evacuation plans for local residents,” the letter said.

“For the NWS, accurate forecasting is only the beginning; effectively communicating those forecasts to the public and coordinating emergency responses based on those forecasts is essential to the protection of life and property.”

The scale of destruction and loss of life in Texas underscored the dangers of severe flooding, even as forecasting and preparedness improve.

“Back in 1987, you could get 15 minutes at most of lead time before a flash flood warning. Now, it’s around three and a half hours. That’s a vast improvement,” climate scientist and former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employee Marjorie McGuirk told The Insurer.

McGuirk cautioned that these gains are directly tied to ongoing research, which is now under threat.

“That improvement happened because of research. The president’s proposed budget for NOAA eliminates all the research, eliminates the arm of NOAA called Oceanic and Atmospheric Research,” she explained.

McGuirk also referenced recent remarks from Secretary Lutnick, who suggested research functions could be transferred into operations. “That’s kind of like putting a design engineer on a production line. You don’t do that. You put a production engineer on the production line,” she said.

Lawmakers have called for accountability. The July 9 letter, signed by Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren (CA-18) and Environment Subcommittee Ranking Member Gabe Amo (RI-1), demanded Lutnick testify before Congress to address NWS staff shortages.

The lawmakers cited “an indiscriminate wave of firings, deferred resignations, and early retirements,” which they said has left the NWS “in crisis.” The letter warned that these staffing issues were exposed during the Central Texas floods.

“While it is too soon to draw definitive conclusions about what happened, it is already clear that this is precisely the type of situation in which the existence of a short-staffed, depleted NWS heightens the risk of tragedy. There will be more such extreme weather events – there always are,” the letter said.

Firas Saleh, director of North American flood models at Moody’s, noted, “Floods becoming more frequent and intense underscores the limitations of relying solely on historical flood levels to assess current and future risk.”

“Risk mitigation remains our frontline defense to help reduce future devastating impacts on communities and economies,” she added.

In a LinkedIn post on June 13, Gallagher Re chief science officer Steve Bowen commented that the Central Texas event had been deemed a one-in-500-year rainfall, with 0.2% chance of occurrence in any given year.

“The quick and professional action by so many first responders helped limit the situation from being even worse. The power of water is often underappreciated in its enormous risk to life and property, and we must continue to communicate this reality,” he said.

Bowen continued that NOAA needs to be fully funded and staffed because it “serves a crucial public service.”

He added that NWS staff “continues to do exceptional work” but extreme events happen 20th Century infrastructure “is inadequate for today's climate.”

“Real-time, life-saving communication channels must improve,” he said.