EUR/USD: Surveys and ECB stance cap upside – ING

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a busy week of European Central Bank speakers before the blackout period, with officials signalling readiness to hike if needed but preferring more time. Markets have removed a 30 April move and see roughly 50% odds of a June hike, which ING expects. ING sees a steady state for EUR/USD closer to 1.17.

ECB communication and data-heavy week

"We have a flurry of European Central Bank speakers in the early part of this week, ahead of the blackout period starting this Thursday. The main message continuing to come through is that the ECB is prepared to act (hike rates) should it be necessary, but that more time is needed. That means the market has priced out a 30 April hike and now attaches only roughly a 50% probably to a June hike."

"Our team think the ECB will indeed hike in June."

"Away from ECB speakers, the eurozone calendar is dominated by business and investor surveys. This starts with the German ZEW tomorrow, builds through the eurozone April PMIs on Thursday, and then sees the Ifo on Friday."

"March business surveys were not as bad as they could have been, and it will be interesting to see whether they deteriorated much this month."

"We are a little cautious on risk at the moment and see a steady state for EUR/USD closer to the 1.17 area."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)