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EMERGING MARKETS-FX eye monthly fall as US tariff deadline looms; rand dips before rate decision

ReutersJul 31, 2025 9:42 AM
  • US inflation data, South Africa rate decision awaited
  • US announces deals with South Korea, Pakistan
  • MSCI EM FX down 0.3%, stocks shed 0.8%

By Ankita Yadav and Purvi Agarwal

- Most emerging market currencies and stocks were lower on Thursday as markets digested more comments on U.S. tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline, while awaiting U.S. economic data and central bank decisions.

The world's biggest economy cut bilateral trade deals with South Korea and Pakistan in the late hours of Wednesday, imposing 15% tariffs on the former, down from previously threatened 25%.

The South Korean won KRW=KFTC appreciated 0.2%.

Trump also exempted some Brazilian goods from tariffs, and ended an exemption for small-value imports.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes of a September rate cut, while keeping rates on hold at the Fed's Wednesday meeting. The dollar index =USD was flat, paring earlier gains.

"The hold will only see Trump's pressure on the Fed increase ... One way or another, a new Trump-appointed chair will be in post by May (next year) and this imparts a dovish impulse to monetary policy," said Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen Investments.

MSCI's index tracking global EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS slipped 0.3%, on track to log monthly declines as tariff uncertainty and U.S. trade deal with the European Union this week supported the greenback.

South Africa's rand ZAR= slipped 0.4%, ahead of a local monetary policy decision where the central bank is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point cut.

"This is going to be the last rate cut for some time ... They will want to preserve an elevated real interest rate buffer to make sure that they deliver on the lower inflation target," said Juan Orts, CEEMEA economist Societe Generale.

A key inflation reading from the U.S. is also on markets' radar for any clues of a tariff pass-through to price pressures, as seen in an inflation report earlier this month.

Investors are closely watching for any trade headlines from the U.S. and its trading partners, in hopes of some concessions that could indicate a softer U.S. tariff stance, and help EMs continue their rally.

On the day, Turkey's lira .XU100 was flat, while most emerging European currencies were subdued against the euro. Hungary's forint EURHUF= was 0.3% lower, set to give back some gains logged in June.

Sentiment also soured after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth month in July, raising some outlook concerns over the health of the world's second largest economy.

Heavyweight Chinese .SSEC, .CSI300 and Hong Kong .HSI stocks slid, weighing on MSCI's global EM equity gauge .MSCIEF that fell 0.8%. However, the index was set to post monthly gains as trade deals signed through the month kept optimism alive.

Regional bourses were mixed, with the one in Poland .WIG20 down 0.8%, and the Romanian .BETI up 0.6%. Turkish stocks .XU100 gained 1%, while South African stocks .JTOPI were little changed.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Thailand economic growth slows in June

** Kenya's inflation rose to 4.1% year-on-year in July

** Indonesia's trade surplus seen narrowing to $3.45 billion in June

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

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