POLL-Russia's 2025 budget deficit seen rising to 1.5% of GDP because of cheaper oil

MOSCOW, April 30 (Reuters) - Russia's budget deficit is projected to be 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, three times the government's target, as the country prepares for a prolonged period of low global oil prices, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Wednesday.

Oil and gas revenue is a crucial source of cash for the Kremlin, accounting for about a third to a half of total federal budget proceeds over the past decade.

The poll found that GDP growth is expected to slow sharply to 1.6% this year, according to the median forecast of 13 economists, compared with 4.3% in 2024. In last month's Reuters poll, economists predicted 1.7% growth for 2025.

Full-year inflation is expected to be slightly higher at 7.0% in 2025, compared to 6.8% in last month's poll.

The rouble, which has rallied by about 38% against the U.S. dollar so far this year, is projected to weaken to 95 roubles to the dollar in 12 months from its current level of 82.70.

This new estimate is stronger than the previous poll's prediction of 100 roubles to the dollar in a year's time.