PRAGUE, April 2 (Reuters) - Central European currencies held at stronger levels on Wednesday with markets awaiting details of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, while the zloty hovered in a range before the Polish central bank was expected to keep interest rates on hold.
The United States is set to impose sweeping new reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners on Wednesday. An announcement is expected in the evening hours in central Europe.
While central European manufacturers have little direct trade with U.S. markets, the region is likely to feel the impact through trade with key partners like Germany.
A Reuters poll on Tuesday saw the region's currencies falling back in the coming months, led by the Hungarian forint, which is expected to lose more than 1% in the next six months.
On Wednesday, the forint EURHUF= was up 0.3% to 400.85 per euro at 0918 GMT, stuck on the weak side of the psychological 400 level and some way from five-month highs around 397 hit less than two weeks ago.
"The forint's weakening has stalled," brokerage Equilor said. "The exchange rate has slightly corrected but remains above the 200-day and 50-day moving averages."
Focus stayed on the potential impact of tariffs on the dollar - whose strength in recent months has been a weight on central Europe - and growth and inflation in central Europe.
Czech National Bank Governor Ales Michl said last week that trade wars could lead to one-off price increases after the bank paused its easing cycle.
On Wednesday, Poland's central bank is likely to keep policy on hold, as it has since autumn 2023. Analysts said Governor Adam Glapinksi would probably keep a hawkish tone at a news conference on Thursday.
"The market has moved into full dovish mode over the past few weeks and yesterday we saw another drop across the rates and bonds curve," ING said.
"At the same time, if we see a motion for a rate cut, the market will likely start pricing more rate cuts. Therefore, we see the balance of risks on the dovish side despite the press conference being hawkish in tone," ING added, saying the zloty could weaken back toward the 4.20 per euro level.
The zloty EURPLN= was up less than 0.1% at 4.1765 per euro on Wednesday, while the Czech crown EURCZK= and Romania's leu EURRON= were steady.
Central European stock markets .BUX, .PX, .WIG20 eased, continuing on a downward trend after hitting high marks in recent weeks.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1118 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.9440 | 24.9470 | +0.01% | +1.06% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 400.8500 | 402.0500 | +0.30% | +2.64% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.1765 | 4.1800 | +0.08% | +2.40% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9775 | 4.9778 | +0.01% | -0.02% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0900 | 117.1600 | +0.06% | -0.12% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Prague | .PX | 2107.62 | 2115.2100 | -0.36% | +19.74% |
Budapest | .BUX | 89639.97 | 89897.98 | -0.29% | +13.00% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2723.00 | 2735.15 | -0.44% | +24.22% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17574.03 | 17568.81 | +0.03% | +5.10% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3580 | 0.0100 | +135bps | +2bps |
Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7520 | -0.0060 | +146bps | +0bps |
Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.1760 | -0.0280 | +149bps | -3bps |
Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9950 | 0.0020 | +299bps | +2bps |
Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3080 | -0.0430 | +301bps | -4bps |
Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6940 | -0.0220 | +301bps | -2bps |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.53 | 3.39 | 3.28 | 3.72 |
Hungary | HUFFRA, BUBOR= | 7.07 | 7.04 | 6.81 | 6.51 |
Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 5.54 | 5.01 | 4.60 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices |