tradingkey.logo

CEE MARKETS-Currencies hold at stronger levels with tariffs in focus

ReutersApr 2, 2025 9:47 AM
  • Polish central bank expected to keep rates on hold
  • All eyes on US President Donald Trump's tariff plans
  • Poll sees CEE currencies easing in coming months

- Central European currencies held at stronger levels on Wednesday with markets awaiting details of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, while the zloty hovered in a range before the Polish central bank was expected to keep interest rates on hold.

The United States is set to impose sweeping new reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners on Wednesday. An announcement is expected in the evening hours in central Europe.

While central European manufacturers have little direct trade with U.S. markets, the region is likely to feel the impact through trade with key partners like Germany.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday saw the region's currencies falling back in the coming months, led by the Hungarian forint, which is expected to lose more than 1% in the next six months.

On Wednesday, the forint EURHUF= was up 0.3% to 400.85 per euro at 0918 GMT, stuck on the weak side of the psychological 400 level and some way from five-month highs around 397 hit less than two weeks ago.

"The forint's weakening has stalled," brokerage Equilor said. "The exchange rate has slightly corrected but remains above the 200-day and 50-day moving averages."

Focus stayed on the potential impact of tariffs on the dollar - whose strength in recent months has been a weight on central Europe - and growth and inflation in central Europe.

Czech National Bank Governor Ales Michl said last week that trade wars could lead to one-off price increases after the bank paused its easing cycle.

On Wednesday, Poland's central bank is likely to keep policy on hold, as it has since autumn 2023. Analysts said Governor Adam Glapinksi would probably keep a hawkish tone at a news conference on Thursday.

"The market has moved into full dovish mode over the past few weeks and yesterday we saw another drop across the rates and bonds curve," ING said.

"At the same time, if we see a motion for a rate cut, the market will likely start pricing more rate cuts. Therefore, we see the balance of risks on the dovish side despite the press conference being hawkish in tone," ING added, saying the zloty could weaken back toward the 4.20 per euro level.

The zloty EURPLN= was up less than 0.1% at 4.1765 per euro on Wednesday, while the Czech crown EURCZK= and Romania's leu EURRON= were steady.

Central European stock markets .BUX, .PX, .WIG20 eased, continuing on a downward trend after hitting high marks in recent weeks.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1118 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.9440

24.9470

+0.01%

+1.06%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

400.8500

402.0500

+0.30%

+2.64%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.1765

4.1800

+0.08%

+2.40%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9775

4.9778

+0.01%

-0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0900

117.1600

+0.06%

-0.12%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2107.62

2115.2100

-0.36%

+19.74%

Budapest

.BUX

89639.97

89897.98

-0.29%

+13.00%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2723.00

2735.15

-0.44%

+24.22%

Bucharest

.BETI

17574.03

17568.81

+0.03%

+5.10%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3580

0.0100

+135bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7520

-0.0060

+146bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1760

-0.0280

+149bps

-3bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9950

0.0020

+299bps

+2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.3080

-0.0430

+301bps

-4bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6940

-0.0220

+301bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.53

3.39

3.28

3.72

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

7.07

7.04

6.81

6.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.54

5.01

4.60

5.85

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
Tradingkey

Related Articles

Tradingkey
KeyAI