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BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD holds post-election gain

ReutersFeb 24, 2025 7:07 PM

- The dollar was mixed on Monday with the euro holding gains after weekend German elections while haven currencies eased.

Month-end rebalancing flows were seen as modestly dollar supportive though falling Treasury yields after another batch of soft U.S. data limited greenback gains. The Dallas Fed measure of business activity fell to its lowest level since September.

Market focus now turns to Friday’s PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

EUR/USD held a modest post-German-election gain though failed to hold above 1.05 with bulls wary about U.S. tariffs as a deadline approaches and the status of Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

Following a call with G7 leaders, U.S. President Donald Trump said everyone expressed the goal of seeing the Russia-Ukraine war end. In a social media post, Trump said that he was in "serious discussions" with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war and that "major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia."

After meeting with Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, said France's objective is to build a solid, long-lasting peace.

Gamma linked to over $30b of options between 1.04 to 1.06 expiring this week are seen keeping EUR/USD rangebound.

GBP/USD was little changed following headlines by one of the Bank of England's more dovish policymakers, Swati Dhingra. While sterling bulls are optimistic that UK data may keep the pound supported, bullish positioning is light. A close above 1.2767, the 50% Fibo of the 1.3434-1.21 range, is needed to put 1.30 in focus.

USD/JPY held a modest gain, largely due to EUR/JPY short-covering after German elections. A series of lower highs on weeklies and dailies continues to weigh on the pair with nearby resistance seen at the 150.93 Feb. 7 low. Japan services PPI data on Tuesday will help inform about the Bank of Japan policy outlook.

Treasury yields were down 1 to 2 basis point. The 2s-10s curve was marginally higher at +22.6bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.23%, led by gains in financials.

Oil rose 0.60% following fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran

Gold rose 0.37% while copper slipped 0.94% due to tariff worries and China demand concerns.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.21%, USD/JPY +0.14%, GBP/USD +0.07%, AUD/USD +0.09%, =USD -0.09%, EUR/JPY +0.38%, GBP/JPY +0.27%, AUD/JPY +0.30%.




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