Corrects milestones in headline and lead to two-month highs, not one-month
SYDNEY, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars stood near their two-month highs on Monday as weak U.S. data drove yields lower, although the two are facing a critical test with interest rates expected to be lowered in both countries this week.
The Aussie was firm at $0.6358 AUD=D3, having risen 1.3% last week to as far as $0.6367. It broke a major resistance level at $0.6330 and has recovered all of its losses since it plummeted on Dec. 18 when the Fed signaled a slower pace of policy easing this year.
Having gained for two straight weeks, resistance is now around $0.6550.
The kiwi dollar held at $0.5740 NZD=D3, the highest since Dec. 18, after bouncing 1.2% last week. It also cleared major resistance at $0.5723 and bulls are targeting $0.5750/60.
In the broad foreign exchange market, the dollar has been struggling to extend a tariff-driven rally. A downside surprise in U.S. retail sales on Friday raised concerns about the health of the world's biggest economy, with investors leaning back towards two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
For domestic investors, it is shaping up to be a packed week, with two central bank meetings and a slew of economic data. The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to deliver its first quarter-point cut on Tuesday, bringing the cash rate to 4.1%, but focus will be on the outlook for future easing.
Over 90% of economists surveyed by Reuters reckon the RBA will cut, and market pricing indicates an 87% probability. However, Lachlan Dynan, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, believes the decision should be a bit more balanced than a near certainty.
"Our base case, a neutral-to-hawkish cut, is one where policy easing comes with minimal forward guidance," said Dynan, adding that should see the Australian dollar little changed, while a surprise hold could see the Australian dollar rise 0.5-1%.
Australia will also have wages data on Wednesday and jobs figures on Thursday, and RBA senior officials including Governor Michele Bullock will be before parliament to explain their latest decision on rates on Friday.
Across the Tasman sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% but then signal a slower pace of moves toward 3.0% or 3.25% by year-end.
The Australian dollar is fetching NZ$1.1079, off a recent high of NZ$1.1150.