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USD/JPY off leg on weak US retail sales, lower rates

ReutersFeb 17, 2025 12:29 AM
  • Weak US retail sales and lower US rates push USD/JPY down another leg Friday
  • Low Friday 152.03, USD/JPY so far in Asia today 151.92-152.60 EBS
  • Back below gradually descending 200-DMA at 152.70, DMA pivot going forward?
  • Resistance from also descending 200-HMA at 152.62, 100-HMA 153.00 above
  • Support below 152.00 at 151.65, 151.20, 150.93 lows Feb 11, 10, 7
  • US yields well off recent highs, Treasury 2s @4.260%, 10s @4.477%
  • In contrast, JGB yields firm, at recent highs, 2s @0.797%, 10s @1.359%
  • Option expiries suggest cap now from 152.00, massive expirations above
  • 152.00-05 total $1.3 bln, 152.20-30 $1.1 bln, also 151.50 smaller $470 mln
  • IMM CTAs less long USD as yen bought, Trump trade fog lifts
  • Bias likely to remain down on direction of interest rates, CB biases
  • Trump tariff policies still a risk though, awaiting fresh news on this front
  • And nL1N3P5037, also nL1N3P50XC, on US retail sales
  • US markets nL1N3P50V9, nL1N3P512Q, nL4N3P5136
Reviewed byTony
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