BUZZ-COMMENT-Swedish crown's 2024 high a viable 2025 target
Jan 24 (Reuters) - Market positioning ahead of next week's Riksbank meeting could see EUR/SEK adjust higher but long-term charts suggest the cross could re-visit the 2024 low this year.
EUR/SEK has been edging lower since peaking at 11.7105 in October and is currently testing levels below its weekly Ichimoku cloud base, 11.4582. The cross has not closed below the cloud since October. The cloud has a below-market twist out to April 17 with 11.4215-11.4238 parameters. Ichimoku cloud twists can appear to attract price action.
A Fibonacci level also provides a EUR/SEK bear target. The 76.4% retracement of the 11.2450-11.7105 September-November rally is at 11.3549. A drop under this level could open a full retracement.
Significant support points and bear targets are at 11.1450 and 11.1320, the lows from June and March 2024, respectively. The March low providing the base for the EUR in 2024 and an objective for the current SEK recovery.
A weekly close above 11.5200 could negate our bearish call for 2025 and, with global growth, trade and inflation uncertainty hanging over the market, volatility might end up clouding direction for the SEK through the first half of the year.
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