BUZZ-COMMENT-How FX traders are positioned is key

Jan 20 (Reuters) - How FX traders are positioned is key as the size and direction of bets have big influence on currencies.

The peculiar make-up of a growing wager on the dollar rising suggests it may act as less restraint on a further rise than other bets have in the past.

That's because little of the current $35 billion wager is focused on major currencies that have much more influence than lesser traded currencies on which current betting is focused.

Almost two thirds of the net dollar long is held against Canada's dollar, Swiss franc and Australia's dollar, and notably traders are yet to bet against the pound and Mexican peso despite big drops.

The bets traders hold versus the euro are roughly one quarter of the largest ever short that resulted from the euro zone crisis, even though EUR/USD's has already fallen under the low traded in 2015.

Only $2 billion is wagered against the yen ahead of this month's Bank of Japan policy decision, compared to $14 billion when policy was changed significantly in July last year.

Last July USD/JPY slumped from 161.96 to 146.42 before changes were announced, while USD/JPY is trading 156 ahead of possible changes this month, which vitally don't include changes to bond purchases.

There is little to stop both euro and yen from falling further, influencing a bigger dollar rally in broader markets.

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))