New Zealand central bank sees US tariffs as disinflationary in near term

SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank said on Monday that U.S. tariffs were likely to ease inflation in the near term as trade diversions and the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar lower import prices and support the economy at home.

However, the tariffs could potentially push inflation higher by around 2030 as global supply chains become less efficient, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said in a research note.

• Weaker U.S. demand for global goods could weigh on the global economy, leading to softer demand for New Zealand's exports from other trading partners, the RBNZ said.

• New Zealand exporters may also face stronger competition as other countries divert goods away from the U.S. and toward New Zealand's key export markets, the report said.

• Despite these pressures, the RBNZ said the overall effect on real gross domestic product would likely be modest.

• New Zealand exports to the United States were 13% lower in the first year after tariff increases but as global trade routes readjust, this recovers to be 6% lower by 2040.

• The research note's baseline scenario captures tariff announcements as of July 31, 2025.

• U.S. President Donald Trump last month replaced the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court with a temporary 10% global import duty and ordered new investigations that could allow him to re-impose the tariffs.

• New Zealand exports were subject to an additional 15% before the court ruling.