FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages expect Fed rate cuts in mid‑2026; Goldman shifts to September
March 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Thursday became the first major brokerage to push its rate cut call to September from June as higher oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East renewed concerns over inflation risks.
Ahead of the war, brokerages had expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver its next interest-rate cut in June, while J.P. Morgan projected the next move would be a hike in 2027.
The Federal Open Market Committee is next scheduled to meet on March 18.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2026 | No. of cuts in 2026 | Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup | 75 bps | 3 (in April, July and September) | 2.75-3.00% |
Goldman Sachs | 50 bps | 2 (in September and December) | 3.00-3.25% |
Morgan Stanley | 50 bps | 2 (in June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
BofA Global Research | 50 bps | 2 (in June and July) | 3.00-3.25% |
Wells Fargo | 50 bps | 2 (in March and June) | 3.00-3.25% |
Nomura | 50 bps | 2 (in June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
Barclays | 50 bps | 2 (in June and December) | 3.00-3.25% |
UBS Global Research | 50 bps | 2 (July and October) | 3.00-3.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 bps | 2 (June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
Deutsche Bank | 25 bps | 1 (in September) | 3.25-3.50% |
BNP Paribas | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
HSBC | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
Standard Chartered | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
Macquarie | Rate hike | Q4 | - |
