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FACTBOX-Major brokerages boost bets on December Fed rate cut ahead of policy meeting

ReutersDec 9, 2025 1:23 PM

- Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered and Nomura became the latest brokerages to forecast an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, as dovish signals from key voting members and weakness in the labor market ramped up hopes of lower borrowing costs.

The brokerages joined global peers such as J.P.Morgan and Goldman Sachs who expect a quarter-point reduction at the Federal Open Market Committee meet for their last policy meeting of the year on December 9 and 10.

Traders are pricing in an 89.4% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:

Brokerage

December policy meeting

Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025)

Citigroup

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Wells Fargo

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Goldman Sachs

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

J.P.Morgan

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Barclays

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Nomura

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Morgan Stanley

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Deutsche Bank

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

BofA Global Research

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

BNP Paribas

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

HSBC

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Standard Chartered

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Macquarie

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

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