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FACTBOX-Major brokerages divided over Fed's December rate decision following jobs data

ReutersNov 24, 2025 2:36 PM

- Global brokerages remain split on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rate at its December meeting or keep policy unchanged, as mixed signals on job growth and unemployment last week clouded the economic outlook.

Morgan Stanley, J.P.Morgan and Standard Chartered have dropped expectations for a December rate cut. Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and HSBC still anticipate a quarter point-reduction, but note the odds of a hold have risen sharply.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:

Brokerage

December policy meeting

Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025)

Citigroup

25 bps

3.00-3.25% (March 2026)

Wells Fargo

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Goldman Sachs

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

J.P.Morgan

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Barclays

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Nomura

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Morgan Stanley

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Deutsche Bank

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

BofA Global Research

No cut

3.75-4.00%

BNP Paribas

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

HSBC

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Standard Chartered

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Macquarie

25 bps (by Q1 2026)

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

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