
Nov 24 (Reuters) - Global brokerages remain split on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rate at its December meeting or keep policy unchanged, as mixed signals on job growth and unemployment last week clouded the economic outlook.
Morgan Stanley, J.P.Morgan and Standard Chartered have dropped expectations for a December rate cut. Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and HSBC still anticipate a quarter point-reduction, but note the odds of a hold have risen sharply.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:
Brokerage | December policy meeting | Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025) |
Citigroup | 25 bps
| 3.00-3.25% (March 2026) |
Wells Fargo
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
Goldman Sachs
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
J.P.Morgan
| No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Barclays
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
Nomura
| No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Morgan Stanley
| No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Deutsche Bank
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
BofA Global Research | No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
BNP Paribas | 25 bps
| 3.50-3.75% |
HSBC | 25 bps
| 3.50-3.75% |
Standard Chartered | No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Macquarie | 25 bps (by Q1 2026) | 3.50-3.75% |
UBS Global Research | 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group