Top brokerages eye consecutive Fed rate cuts after policy meeting
September 18 (Reuters) - Major brokerages reiterated their stance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its two upcoming meetings this year following the U.S. central bank's widely anticipated quarter-point reduction.
Nomura and KBW became the latest brokerages to forecast an additional rate cut in October.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a press conference after the two-day monetary policy meeting, hinted at further policy easing, emphasizing that the softening job market was now top of mind for him and his fellow policymakers.
BofA Global Research and HSBC do not expect a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, but said that risks have risen for the next cut to be pulled forward to October, if jobs data worsens.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2025 | No. of cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025) |
Citigroup | 50 bps
| 2 | 3.00%-3.25% (March 2026) |
Wells Fargo | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Goldman Sachs | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
J.P.Morgan | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Barclays | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Nomura | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Morgan Stanley | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Deutsche Bank | 50 bps | 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
BofA Global Research | 25 bps | 1 (in December)
| 3.75%-4.00% |
UBS Global Research | 75 bps(by Q1 2026)
| 2 | 3.25%-3.50% (by Q1 2026) |
BNP Paribas | 50 bps
| 2 | 3.50%-3.75% |
HSBC | 25 bps
| 1 (in December) | 3.75%-4.00% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 75 bps(by Q1 2026) | 2 | 3.25-3.50% (by Q1 2026) |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
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