Support for far-right triples in western German vote, early forecasts show

BERLIN, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Support for Germany's far right surged in local elections in the country's most populous state on Sunday, sending a warning to conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz's four-month-old national coalition with the Social Democrats, early projections showed.

Initial forecasts from pollster infratest dimap for broadcaster ARD after voting ended for councils, districts and mayors in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party had more than tripled to 16.5% from 2020.

Merz's conservatives remained the strongest party, scoring 34% of the vote, roughly the same level as five years ago. The Social Democrats (SPD) slipped to 22.5% from 24.3%, according to infratest dimap.

"I am looking at the AfD's results with great concern. This should give us pause for thought because this is a path that is emerging, and we democrats must counter it," Olaf Lies, SPD premier of the state of Lower Saxony told ARD television.

North Rhine-Westphalia is home to nearly a quarter of Germany's population. It covers a wide area from the Ruhr, Germany's declining industrial heartland which is seeking to shift away from coal mining and steel production, to cities such as Cologne and Duesseldorf and large rural regions.

The vote is a first test for Merz's uneasy coalition with the SPD which critics say is failing to tackle a sluggish economy and voter concerns about immigration.

Tackling migration is a priority for the nationalist AfD which wants to spread its appeal to western Germany from eastern strongholds.

A weekend INSA poll on Sunday put Merz's conservatives down 1 point and level with the AfD on 25% nationally while the SPD trailed in third place at 14%.

"This is a great success for us," said AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla on social media platform X. "We are a people's party and we all bear a great responsibility for Germany."

The AfD became Germany's second biggest party in February's federal election and was endorsed by tech billionaire Elon Musk.

Germany's domestic spy agency classified the AfD as a right-wing extremist organisation in May, although that decision is on ice pending a court appeal.

The initial forecasts in North Rhine-Westphalia showed heavy losses for the Greens and Free Democrats. Final results are not expected before Monday.