FACTBOX-Brokerages retain September rate cut bets after soft jobs report

August 8 (Reuters) - Wall Street brokerages retained their expectations for a September rate cut following a soft jobs report, while J.P.Morgan became the latest to join the list.

J.P.Morgan expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, followed by three more quarter-point cuts before the Fed pauses, compared with its prior forecast of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.

Earlier this month, data showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June. Economists polled by Reuters forecast payrolls advancing by 110,000 jobs in July

Last month, the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady and maintained its projection for two cuts this year, though a growing minority sees no cuts at all, and slightly dialed back its outlook to just one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027.

Traders are pricing in 58.8 bps in rate cuts by year-end, according to data compiled by LSEG. They are penciling in about a 89.2% chance of a 25-bps cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025: