Canada's June jobs report is expected to show flat employment growth and a slight rise in the jobless rate to 7.1%, but recent fiscal tightening poses downside risks. A soft print could fuel speculation of an earlier Bank of Canada rate cut, adding pressure to an already unattractive Canadian Dollar (CAD), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Loonie faces risks on weak employment print
"Canada releases June jobs data today. Consensus is for no change in employment, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 7.0% to 7.1%. Recent government spending cuts point to an increased risk of job losses, and in our view, markets continue to underprice the probability of a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada (15bp)."
"A particularly weak jobs print could even spark speculation of a move as early as 30 July. It may be too soon to position for CAD weakness ahead of any clarity on the US-Canada trade deal, but we continue to see the loonie as broadly unattractive."
Related Articles
Investing in Clean Energy
TradingKey - Not so long ago, clean energy was relegated to a niche, a corner for subsidies, early markets, and greens. Now it's at the center of global economic thought. Governments, business, and consumers are driving a structural transformation from fossil fuels to renewables. The roofs are toppe
Investing in Luxury & Experiential Consumption
Niche assets like data centers, logistics, healthcare, and cold storage thrive on structural drivers, not traditional property cycles Specialized real estate benefits from secular trends like digitalization, demographics, and supply chain innovation, making demand resilient and less cycle-sensitive
Oracle’s FY2026 Q1 Preview: Will OpenAI Contract Spark a Broadcom-Like Stock Surge?
TradingKey - As analysts raise targets and expectations, could Oracle’s stock replicate the post-earnings rally seen at Broadcom following its OpenAI-related contract announcement?
U.S. August CPI Preview: Persistent Rise in Inflation, What Impact on Rate Cuts? And on US Stocks?
TradingKey - On 11 September 2025, the U.S. will publish August CPI data. Consensus forecasts indicate a 0.3% month-over-month increase for both headline CPI and core CPI. As a result, headline CPI year-over-year may climb to 2.9%, up from 2.7%
Fed to Cut Rates: All Asset Prices Up!
TradingKey - The Federal Reserve is almost certain to restart its interest rate cut cycle on 17 September this year. After in-depth research, we have concluded that cryptocurrencies, the broader U.S. stock market, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds will all go up.
