China entering uncharted territory? – Rabobank

FXStreetJul 4, 2025 10:45 AM

Talks between the US and China have resulted in a truce but the situation remains fragile, Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Teeuwe Mevissen reports.

Situation between US and China remains fragile

"So while China’s GDP over the first quarter came in better than expected, the economy still faces many challenges and risks."

"This special discusses the recent truce between China and the US in the light of better than expected Q1 data and will explain why we think it is unlikely that Q1 growth will be sustained for the second half of this year."

"We will revise our forecast for 2025 upward because we expect Q2 data to be around China’s growth target, downside risks remain significant and we foresee more downside for 2026."

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