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FACTBOX-Major brokerages retain Fed rate cut expectations ahead of policy meeting

ReutersJun 13, 2025 12:38 PM

- Most Wall Street brokerages kept their forecasts for rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve unchanged after key economic readings, while investors shifted focus to next week's monetary policy meeting.

U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in May, while job growth slowed amid uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies.

Citigroup anticipates 75 basis points of cuts this year in three equal tranches in September, October and December, revising its earlier forecast of 100 bps.

The U.S. central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, maintaining the stance it adopted after its last rate cut in December 2024.

Traders are pricing in 56 bps of rate cuts by year-end, according to data compiled by LSEG. They are penciling in a 61% chance of a 25-bps cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the Fed's meeting on June 17-18:

Brokerage

Total cuts in 2025

No. of cuts in 2025

Fed Funds Rate

Citigroup

75 bps

3 (starting in September)

3.25-3.50% (end of 2025)

J.P.Morgan

25 bps

1 (in December)

4.00-4.25% (end of 2025)

Goldman Sachs

25 bps

1 (in December)

4.00-4.25% (end of 2025)

Wells Fargo

75 bps

3 (25 bps each in June, September and December)

3.50-3.75% (end of 2025)

Barclays

25 bps

1 (in December)

4.00-4.25% (end of 2025)

ING

50 bps

2 (H2 2025)

3.75-4.00% (end of 2025)

Nomura

25 bps

1 (in December)

4.00-4.25% (end of 2025)

Morgan Stanley

No rate cut

0

4.25-4.50% (end of 2025)

Deutsche Bank

25 bps

1 (In December)

4.00-4.25% (end of 2025)

BofA Global Research

No rate cut

0

4.25-4.50% (end of 2025)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

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