It's raining data: Retail sales, PPI, et al

• Main US indexes decline; Nasdaq off most, down ~0.7%
• Cons disc down most among S&P sectors; Utilities lead gainers
• Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
• Dollar slips; bitcoin off ~2%; crude down >2.5%; gold rises
• US 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~4.48%

IT'S RAINING DATA: RETAIL SALES, PPI, ET AL

Investors were inundated by a flood of indicators on Thursday, none of which rocked the boat, all of which pointed to a slowing - but still healthy - economy.

Receipts at U.S. retailers USRSL=ECI increased in April by a scant 0.1%, an abrupt deceleration from March's upwardly revised 1.7% increase but a rounding error north of consensus, which called for the metric to be unchanged.

Digging below the headline, the biggest attention-grabber on the upside is the 1.2% increase in food/drink services, while a 1.4% drop in department store receipts offered further bad news for the troubled segment.

Sales at gasoline stations dipped 0.5% - and off 6.8% year-over-year. The closely watched non-store retail sales metric - which includes online shopping - gained 0.2%.

Motor vehicles/parts declined 0.1%, settling after the prior month's 6.0% jump as consumers tried to get a jump on impending tariffs.

The "control" figure, which excludes autos, gasoline, building supplies and food services - and is most closely correlated with the personal expenditures element of GDP - unexpectedly dropped by 0.2% in defiance of the 0.3% gain analysts expected.

"Spending from last month leveled out, but relative to last year, it's party on dude," writes Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X. "After the March spending spree, consumers tightened up a bit. Not surprising."

A third major take on April inflation added further evidence price growth, for now, hasn't strayed from its meandering path down to the Fed's target rate.

The Labor Department's Producer Price Index (PPI) USPPFD=ECI, which tracks the prices U.S. companies get for their goods and services at the figurative factory door, unexpectedly dropped by 0.5%.

Economists predicted a 0.2% increase.

Year-over-year, PPI cooled down a full percentage point to 2.4%, 10 basis points south of consensus.

"It's encouraging that the inflation data has softened in April, especially as we brace for the potential for higher inflation over the coming months as tariffs work their way through the economy," says Clark Bellin, chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth.

Core PPI, which excludes food, energy and trade services, cooled down on an annual basis to 2.9%, bringing it within a percentage point of Powell & Co's 2% annual target.

Last week, 229,000 U.S. workers joined the queue outside the unemployment office USJOB=ECI, repeating the previous month's print, and hitting the expectations bull's eye.

Initial claims remain low and rangebound, with the four-week moving average of initial claims moving sideways, with a slightly upward bias.

Ongoing jobless claims USJOBN=ECI, reported on a one-week lag, rose by 0.5% to 1.881 million, or 9,000 fewer than analysts expected.

Still, continuing claims remain elevated and support recent consumer survey data suggesting laid-off workers are finding it increasingly difficult to find a replacement gig.

Next, industrial output USIP=ECI was unchanged last month according to the Federal Reserve.

Economists predicted a 0.2% rebound from March's 0.3% decline.

Manufacturing output declined by 0.4%, steeper than the 0.2% drop analysts expected.

Beneath the surface, a 3.3% rebound in utilities output was offset in part by a 1.9% slowdown in autos/parts output and a 1.0% pullback in construction supplies.

"Production will eventually falter, even if no more tariffs are imposed globally, given that households and firms have brought forwards purchases of high-value durable and investment goods where possible," says Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Capacity utilization USCAPU=ECI, a measure of economic slack, unexpectedly lost steam, dipping by 0.1 percentage point to 77.7%.

In housing market news, the mood among homebuilders has unexpectedly grown more dire this month.

The National Association of Homebuilders' USNAHB=ECI housing market index (HMI) slid 6 points to print at an even 34, the lowest reading in one-and-a-half years.

An NAHB number south of 50 indicates pessimism in the sector.

"Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from the stop-and-start tariff issues has hurt builder confidence," writes Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist, who adds that trade actions "have had a negative impact on builders, as 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to uncertainty around material prices."

Pivoting to Atlantic region manufacturing, factory activity has continued to contract this month as Wall Street predicted, but not quite as steeply as forecast.

The New York Fed's Empire State index USEMPM=ECI printed at -9.2, worse than April's -8.1, but not quite as dire as the -10.0 predicted.

As for the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Business index (or, Philly Fed) USPFDB=ECI that metric dipped by -4.0, much shallower than the prior month's -26.4 plunge and considerably less bleak than the -11.0 consensus.

A negative Empire State/Philly Fed reading indicates monthly contraction.

And finally, in more ancient history, business inventories USBINV=ECI increased by 0.1% in March, weaker than the 0.2% growth expected.

Even so, the private inventories element was a net contributor to first-quarter GDP, according to the Commerce Department.

(Stephen Culp)

Retail sales

Inflation gauges

Initial and continuing jobless claims

Industrial production

NAHB

Empire State and Philly Fed

Business inventories