LIVE MARKETS-LPL cuts S&P 500 target as tariffs muddy outlook

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LPL CUTS S&P 500 TARGET AS TARIFFS MUDDY OUTLOOK

With "vast unknowns" around U.S. trade policies, LPL Financial's chief technical strategist, Adam Turnquist, and its chief equity strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, cited a muddied outlook for inflation, interest rates and monetary policy along with corporate earnings as they cut the firm's S&P 500 target for year-end 2025.

Prefacing their change with the caution that it is "hard to have much conviction", the strategists wrote that their target for 6,275-6,375, set in December, "is now too high based on the new tariff regime." As such the strategists have changed their targets to a 5,650-5,800 range for year-end 2025, implying a 7-10% increase from the April 17 closing price. This was before the S&P 500's drop so far on Monday of almost 3%.

Part of their concern is tariffs are "clearly a drag on earnings this year and the outlook for corporate America" as they point to an expanding list of U.S. companies that have pulled their forward guidance.

And they note that other companies are citing tariff uncertainty as a major downside risk to earnings with reference to a Chief Executive Group survey of 329 U.S. CEO's, of which 75% said tariffs would hurt their business this year.

Compared with a consensus expectation for $266 earnings per share for the benchmark index, down just $3 from the start of 2025, the LPL strategists say that they expect earnings in the $250-$255 range for 2025.

(Sinéad Carew)

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