POLL-Mexico headline inflation likely fell below 4% in first half of January

MEXICO CITY, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation rate likely dipped to its lowest level in four years in the first half of January to settle under 4%, a Reuters poll of analysts predicted on Wednesday, bolstering bets the central bank will continue to lower borrowing costs.

The median estimate from 13 analysts indicated the annual headline inflation rate likely dropped to 3.78% in the period, which would mark its fifth consecutive two-week decline and land within the central bank's 3% target, plus or minus one percentage point.

In 2022, the rate of rising consumer prices in Mexico hit a more than two-decade high at 8.77%. MXCPHI=ECI

Core inflation, which strips out some especially volatile food and energy prices, likely slid during the first two weeks of January to settle at 3.68%, according to the poll, after creeping up in December. MXCPIC=ECI

In December, the Mexican central bank known as Banxico delivered its fifth interest-rate cut last year with a 25-basis-point reduction to the key lending rate, taking it to 10.00%. At the time, the bank's board noted that further and larger cuts could be considered in the future.

In an interview following the central bank's December rate decision, Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath said the monetary authority may consider a rate cut of up to 50 basis points in its next session, scheduled for Feb. 6.

But Heath noted in a separate interview this week that circumstances have changed significantly due to policy signals from U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office on Monday.

A separate survey of economists released this week by investment bank Citigroup showed that while a consensus of those polled anticipate a 25-basis-point reduction in February, other market observers expect a rate cut double that size.

Monthly inflation in the first half of January likely edged up 0.29%, according to the Reuters poll, while the monthly core rate was seen up by 0.23%. MXCPIF=ECI, MXCPIH=ECI

National statistics institute INEGI will release official consumer price data for the first two weeks of January on Thursday.

(Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin; Editing by David Alire Garcia and Rod Nickel)

((david.aliregarcia@thomsonreuters.com; +52 55 5282 7151; Reuters Messaging: david.aliregarcia.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))