Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying

ReutersJan 15, 2025 5:16 PM

Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. central bankers project more limited interest-rate cuts in 2025 than the full percentage point of reductions they delivered in 2024, given slower progress toward their 2% inflation goal, a still-strong labor market, and a lot of uncertainty over the potential impact of tax cuts, tariffs and other economic policies in Donald Trump's second term as president.

Here is a look at comments from Fed policymakers since the last rate-setting decision, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings, as best as can be figured. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts.

The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove	Dovish	Centrist	Hawkish	Hawk
	Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "I think we can afford to proceed more cautiously with further cuts." Jan. 6, 2025	Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "I think we're in a good place, but I think from here it's a new phase and we're going to be cautious about further cuts." Dec. 18, 2024	Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "We should be cautious in considering changes to the policy rate as we move toward a more neutral setting...We should also refrain from prejudging the incoming administration’s future policies.” Jan. 9, 2025
	Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: "Is there evidence of overheating of the economy? So far, in recent months, there is not a lot of evidence." Jan. 10, 2025	John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: "While I expect that disinflation will progress, it will take time, and the process may well be choppy. Monetary policy is well positioned to keep the risks to our goals in balance." Jan. 15, 2025	Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "I am in favor of adjusting policy gradually going forward and only in response to a sustained change in the tone of the data." Jan. 9, 2025
		Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair, permanent voter: No public comments on monetary policy since Oct. 2024.	Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, 2025 voter: Since September, "the economic data came in stronger…and the inflation numbers printed higher than desired. So I changed my assessment of risks." Jan. 10, 2025
		Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: No public comments on monetary policy since May 2024.	Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed President, 2026 voter: No public comments on monetary policy since Dec. 2024.
		Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "I believe that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2% goal over the medium term and that further reductions will be appropriate.” Jan. 8, 2025	Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: No public comments on monetary policy since Nov. 2024.
		Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: "We are fully aware that we are not there yet - no one is popping champagne anywhere….And at the same time ... we want the unemployment rate to stay where it is." Jan. 4, 2025	Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: No public comments on monetary policy since Nov. 2024.
		Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: "With an economy that is in a good place overall and policy already closer to a more neutral stance, I view the current nature of uncertainty as calling for a gradual and patient approach to policymaking." Jan. 9, 2025	Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2027 voter: The December consumer price index data "continues the story we have been on, which is that inflation is coming down towards target." Jan. 15, 2025
		Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: “It's appropriate for us to take a bit of a pause right now and see how things shake out.” Jan. 9, 2025
		Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2027 voter: No public comments on monetary policy since Dec. 2024.
		Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2027 voter: “At this point, I would not want to see further slowing in the labor market.” Jan. 4, 2025

Notes: Fed policymakers reduced the policy rate in December to the 4.25%-4.50% range. Projections showed most policymakers expect to cut rates by a half percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of this year, a smaller reduction than they saw in September.

The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date	Dove	Dovish	Centrist	Hawkish	Hawk
Dec. '24	0	2	10	7	0
Nov. '24	0	0	13	5	0
Sept '24	0	1	12	5	0
May through July '24	0	1	10	6	1
March '24	0	1	11	5	1
Jan '24	0	2	9	4	1
Dec '23	0	2	9	4	1
Oct/Nov '23	0	2	7	5	2
Sept '23	0	4	3	6	3
June '23	0	3	3	8	3
March '23	0	2	3	10	2
Dec '22	0	4	1	12	2

(Reporting by Ann Saphir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)

((Ann.Saphir@thomsonreuters.com; 312-593-8342; www.twitter.com/annsaphir; Reuters Messaging: ann.saphir.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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