FACTBOX-ANZ expects Brent crude to end 2026 at $88/barrel on Middle East supply losses
April 14 (Reuters) - ANZ said on Tuesday it expects Brent crude to trade above $90 per barrel in 2026 before ending the year at $88 due to a loss of supply from the Middle East conflict.
The Australian bank sees oil prices remaining elevated into 2027 and staying around the $80 to $85 per-barrel range.
ANZ estimates that nearly 10 million barrels per day of crude supply have been removed from effective global availability, turning what was expected to be a modest surplus at the start of the year into a deep deficit.
While some supply could return to the market in the event of normalising security conditions, the bank estimates that between 1 million and 2 million bpd of output could face permanent or semi-permanent disruption due to reservoir damage, deferred maintenance, and financial challenges.
The U.S. military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and raising uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to oil markets. O/R
Brent futures LCOc1 declined by 0.7% to $98.64 on Tuesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 crude fell 1.7% to $97.4 by 0537 GMT.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
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Goldman Sachs | $83 ($85 previously) | $80 | $78 ($79 previously) | $75 | April 9, 2026 | Trims 2Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$87 |
ANZ | $88* | April 14, 2026 | Expects Brent prices to remain above $90/bbl for the rest the year. Sees prices at $80-$85/bbl into 2027 | |||
UBS | - | - | - | - | April 13, 2026 | Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie | $89.28 | $74.50 | $82.93 | $70.50 | March 27 | If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley | - | $80 ($70 previously) | - | - | March 24, 2026 | Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P Morgan | - | $72 | - | - | March 20, 2026 | Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered | $85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
| Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
BMI | $70 ($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
Citi | $71 ($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC | $80 ($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 |
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indicates end-of-period forecast
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