US natgas prices rise ahead of storage report on higher demand forecast

ReutersMar 5, 2026 2:24 PM

Higher than usual gas withdrawal expected due to winter storm
Waha Hub prices negative for 20th consecutive day
QatarEnergy halts LNG production after Iran attack

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on forecasts of higher demand this week than previously expected.

That small price increase came ahead of a federal storage report expected to show energy firms pulled more gas out of storage than usual last week during a winter storm.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.1 cents, or 1.4%, to $2.958 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Energy analysts forecast energy firms pulled a higher-than-usual 121 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 27 to heat homes and businesses as a winter storm dumped massive amounts of snow in the Northeast and other parts of the country.

That withdrawal compares with declines of 106 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average decrease of 96 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 20th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

In Arizona, meanwhile, next-day power prices at the Palo Verde hub W-PVP-IDX fell to $4.45 per megawatt-hour (MWh), its lowest since hitting a record low of 35 cents in May 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 20, keeping heating demand and the amount of gas energy firms need to pull out of storage low in coming weeks.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 124.0 bcfd this week to 111.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.0 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

Gas flows to QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil's XOM.N 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas were on track to fall to near zero on Wednesday and Thursday after averaging around 0.2 bcfd over the prior seven days. Energy analysts expect the plant to start producing first LNG in coming weeks.

In the Middle East where the United States and Israel continued to bomb Iran for a sixth day, QatarEnergy halted LNG production earlier this week after Iran attacked its facilities in Qatar, causing gas prices around the world to soar. Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world along with the U.S. and Australia.

Around the world, gas traded near $18 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and near $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 27 Forecast	Week ended Feb 20 Actual	Year ago Feb 27	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-121	-52	-106	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,897	2,018	1,771	1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.7%	-0.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.97	2.92	4.14	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	17.53	15.96	13.21	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	15.11	15.77	13.50	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	228	237	265	316	309
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	28	26	10	12	9
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	256	263	275	328	318

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.2	109.7	109.7	106.3	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.4	8.3	8.4	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.7	118.0	118.0	N/A	108.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	3.7	3.6	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	7.0	6.6	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.7	18.2	18.4	15.6	13.2
U.S. Commercial	16.1	12.5	9.7	13.9	12.1
U.S. Residential	26.2	18.9	13.6	22.0	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	32.5	31.6	29.0	30.2	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.3	24.1	23.2	24.8	24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.9	2.5	2.2	3.4	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	108.5	95.2	83.3	99.4	96.3
Total U.S. Demand	137.7	124.0	111.9	N/A	118.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	95	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	95	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	99	98	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 6	Week ended Feb 27	2025	2024	2023
Wind	13	13	11	11	10
Solar	7	6	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	37	40	42	41
Coal	15	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.87	3.10	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.75	2.85	3.40	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.43	1.56	3.52	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.40	2.44	3.29	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.67	2.87	3.53	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.00	3.50	3.74	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.09	2.05	3.53	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.69	-1.76	0.78	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.26	1.27	1.47	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	56.65	47.90	50.19	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	51.78	42.59	48.35	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	7.77	10.87	34.51	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	4.45	15.75	23.31	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	2.47	6.54	16.63	28.44	53.02

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